Shqip\u00ebria ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl ku r\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb po ushqen vetveten, duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u ndalur. Nd\u00ebrmjet 2015 dhe 2025, numri i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve t\u00eb lindur n\u00eb vendin ton\u00eb ra me 35%, duke reflektuar, jo vet\u00ebm d\u00ebshir\u00ebn e njer\u00ebzve p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur m\u00eb pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb, por p\u00ebr nj\u00eb tkurrje t\u00eb motorit riprodhues t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
Demograf\u00ebt shpjegojn\u00eb se kur baza e re e popullsis\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet shpejt (sidomos grupmoshat 20\u201339 vje\u00e7), pra mosha riprodhuese, tkurrja priret t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtohet. Ky fenomen q\u00eb, n\u00eb gjuh\u00eb teknike, quhet moment demografik n\u00eb kah negativ, tregon se edhe sikur fertiliteti t\u00eb mos bjer\u00eb m\u00eb, fakti q\u00eb ka m\u00eb pak gra dhe burra n\u00eb moshat e lindjes e ul numrin absolut t\u00eb lindjeve, dhe pastaj kjo ushqen nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl tjet\u00ebr tkurrjeje.<\/p>\n
T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat zyrtare t\u00eb INSTAT referojn\u00eb se nd\u00ebrmjet 2015 dhe 2025, numri i grave n\u00eb kulmin e riprodhimit 20-34 vje\u00e7 ra me 32%. Qarqe t\u00eb t\u00ebra kan\u00eb humbur mbi gjysm\u00ebn e grave n\u00eb mosh\u00ebn e lindjes n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e fundit. Popullsia e re n\u00eb mosh\u00eb riprodhimi u tkurr dy her\u00eb m\u00eb shpejt se popullsia e p\u00ebrgjithshme, duke garantuar p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsim t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb lindjeve n\u00eb vijim.<\/p>\n
Vitin e kaluar lind\u00ebn 21,425 bebe n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb vendin, ose 8% m\u00eb pak se vitin paraardh\u00ebs. Ritmi i r\u00ebnies \u00ebsht\u00eb thelluar pas pandemis\u00eb me rreth 26% gjat\u00eb 2021\u20132025.<\/p>\n
Profesor Ilir G\u00ebdeshi, i cili prej vitesh ndjek zhvillimet demografike n\u00eb vend, thekson se numri i lindjeve nuk po ulet vet\u00ebm nga niveli i lart\u00eb i emigrimit te t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb dhe as nga ndryshimi i stilit t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs q\u00eb i \u00e7on ata m\u00eb shum\u00eb drejt karrier\u00ebs, por edhe nga kostot e larta q\u00eb p\u00ebrballet nj\u00eb familje e re.<\/p>\n
\u201cVrojtimet tona kan\u00eb gjetur se \u00e7iftet e reja n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb lindin m\u00eb pak se sa bashk\u00ebmoshatar\u00ebt e tyre shqiptar\u00eb n\u00eb emigracion. Kemi v\u00ebn\u00eb re q\u00eb sapo dy t\u00eb rinj ikin nga Shqip\u00ebria lindin dy apo m\u00eb shum\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00eb\u201d, tha z. G\u00ebdeshi. Demograf\u00ebt thon\u00eb se ende ka nj\u00eb hendek mes d\u00ebshir\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb lindur f\u00ebmij\u00eb dhe atyre q\u00eb lindin n\u00eb realitet.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2018, n\u00eb anket\u00ebn e sh\u00ebndetit, grat\u00eb u pyet\u00ebn se sa ishte numri ideal i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve q\u00eb do t\u00eb donin t\u00eb lindnin gjat\u00eb jet\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre. Rezultatet treguan se 100 gra donin t\u00eb sillnin n\u00eb jet\u00eb s\u00eb paku 250 f\u00ebmij\u00eb, nj\u00eb shif\u00ebr kjo m\u00eb e lart\u00eb se norma e z\u00ebvend\u00ebsimit t\u00eb prind\u00ebrve q\u00eb garanton rritjen natyrore t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, k\u00ebto gra lind\u00ebn shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb se sa d\u00ebshironin n\u00eb idealen e tyre. Gjasht\u00eb vite m\u00eb von\u00eb nga anketa, 100 gra n\u00eb mosh\u00eb riprodhimi lind\u00ebn vet\u00ebm 121 f\u00ebmij\u00eb, as gjysm\u00ebn e asaj q\u00eb e konsideronin si ideale m\u00eb 2018.<\/p>\n
Demograf\u00ebt pohojn\u00eb se qeveria, me politikat e saj, duhet t\u00eb korrektoj\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebt\u00eb hendek, q\u00eb t\u00eb mund\u00ebsoj\u00eb ambientin q\u00eb grat\u00eb t\u00eb lindin t\u00eb gjith\u00eb f\u00ebmij\u00ebt q\u00eb duan.<\/p>\n
Skenar\u00ebt, 13 mij\u00eb bebe n\u00eb vitin 2035<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse zhvillimet demografike ecin me ritmet aktuale, emigracion t\u00eb fort\u00eb te t\u00eb rinjt\u00eb dhe r\u00ebnie t\u00eb normave t\u00eb fertilitetit, lindjet do t\u00eb zbresin gradualisht drejt 13 mij\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2035, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb r\u00ebnies potenciale t\u00eb prind\u00ebrve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. N\u00eb kushtet kur baza e re e popullsis\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet shpejt, kjo do t\u00eb sillte rreth 10 mij\u00eb lindje n\u00eb vit n\u00eb 2040.<\/p>\n
Jemi n\u00eb momentin ku rritja e lindjeve nuk vjen m\u00eb nga d\u00ebshira p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur f\u00ebmij\u00eb, por se nuk ka kush t\u2019i lind\u00eb. Vendi ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl ku tkurrja po kalon nga r\u00ebnie lineare n\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar, sepse tani nuk po bie vet\u00ebm norma e lindshm\u00ebris\u00eb, por po tkurret vet\u00eb popullsia q\u00eb sjell lindje.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse n\u00eb vitin 2015, Shqip\u00ebria num\u00ebronte mbi 124 mij\u00eb vajza t\u00eb mosh\u00ebs 20\u201324 vje\u00e7, n\u00eb vitin 2025 ky num\u00ebr ka r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb rreth 72 mij\u00eb, nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie drastike prej rreth 42%.<\/p>\n
E nj\u00ebjta tendenc\u00eb ndiqet edhe n\u00eb grupmosh\u00ebn 15\u201319 vje\u00e7, ku r\u00ebnia prej rreth 49 mij\u00eb personash paralajm\u00ebron se dekada e ardhshme do t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr balancat demografike t\u00eb vendit.<\/p>\n
Nga ana tjet\u00ebr, r\u00ebnia \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e moderuar n\u00eb moshat e vjetra t\u00eb fertilitetit (45\u201349 vje\u00e7), ku rezultuan mbi 72 mij\u00eb, relativisht m\u00eb i lart\u00eb krahasuar me vajzat e reja.<\/p>\n
Kjo p\u00ebrmbysje e struktur\u00ebs, ku ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb gra q\u00eb po dalin nga mosha e riprodhimit sesa vajza q\u00eb po hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb, konfirmon se momenti demografik \u00ebsht\u00eb kthyer n\u00eb nj\u00eb kah negativ t\u00eb pakthyesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr momentin.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb vitin 2015, struktura e grave n\u00eb mosh\u00eb riprodhimi ishte e orientuar drejt t\u00eb rejave, me mbi 117 mij\u00eb vajza n\u00eb grupin 15\u201319 vje\u00e7. Sot, ky grup \u00ebsht\u00eb reduktuar n\u00eb rreth 68 mij\u00eb. Ky reduktim me pothuajse gjysm\u00ebn e popullsis\u00eb riprodhuese brenda 10 viteve shpjegon arsyen pse shifrat e lindjeve n\u00eb rang komb\u00ebtar po p\u00ebsojn\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb p\u00ebsojn\u00eb r\u00ebnie dyshifrore vit pas viti.<\/p>\n
Emigracioni masiv i moshave t\u00eb reja po l\u00eb pas nj\u00eb grop\u00eb q\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb mbushet me politika sociale afatshkurtra.\/Monitor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Shqip\u00ebria ka hyr\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb cik\u00ebl ku r\u00ebnia e popullsis\u00eb po ushqen vetveten, duke u b\u00ebr\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u ndalur. Nd\u00ebrmjet 2015 dhe 2025, numri i f\u00ebmij\u00ebve t\u00eb lindur n\u00eb vendin ton\u00eb ra me 35%, duke reflektuar, jo vet\u00ebm d\u00ebshir\u00ebn e njer\u00ebzve p\u00ebr t\u00eb pasur m\u00eb pak f\u00ebmij\u00eb, por p\u00ebr nj\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":35809,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35808"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35808\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35810,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35808\/revisions\/35810"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/35809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}