Nj\u00eb fizikant italian dhe nj\u00eb ekip nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebsh paraqesin nj\u00eb model q\u00eb tregon nj\u00eb reduktim drastik t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore deri n\u00eb vitin 2064, n\u00eb skenar\u00eb ekstrem\u00eb t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs klimatike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nj\u00eb model i ri teorik i zhvilluar nga shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb nga Evropa po ngre p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb plan t\u00eb par\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimet n\u00eb lidhje me evolucionin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, duke parashikuar se n\u00eb kushte ekstreme mund t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb nj\u00eb reduktim drastik brenda dekadave t\u00eb ardhshme. Studimi, i prezantuar n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet botimeve shkencore nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare dhe i raportuar nga Wired Italia, bazohet n\u00eb pun\u00ebn e fizikantit italian Alessio Zaccone dhe t\u00eb ndjerit Kostya Trachenko. T\u00eb dy studiuesit zhvilluan nj\u00eb korniz\u00eb t\u00eb unifikuar matematikore, t\u00eb njohur si modeli Trachenko-Zaccone, i cili p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb p\u00ebrshkruaj\u00eb evolucionin e popullsis\u00eb gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb periudhe prej af\u00ebrsisht 12,000 vjet\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ndryshe nga modelet tradicionale demografike, qasja e re p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb unifikoj\u00eb fazat e ndryshme t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb popullsis\u00eb p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb ekuacioni jolinear. Modeli merr n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb variabla t\u00eb tilla si presioni klimatik, burimet natyrore dhe krizat globale, duke u p\u00ebrpjekur t\u00eb kap\u00eb skenar\u00eb m\u00eb kompleks\u00eb t\u00eb evolucionit. Studiuesit argumentojn\u00eb se n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb e mundur t\u00eb simulohen skenar\u00eb t\u00eb shumt\u00eb t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm, nga rritja e q\u00ebndrueshme deri te ndryshimet e menj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb ekuilibrin demografik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb nga skenar\u00ebt m\u00eb pesimist\u00eb t\u00eb shqyrtuar nga modeli, nj\u00eb reduktim i ndjesh\u00ebm i \u201ckapacitetit mbajt\u00ebs\u201d t\u00eb planetit, p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ndryshimeve klimatike, pandemive ose konflikteve gjeopolitike, mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb deri n\u00eb 50% brenda rreth kat\u00ebr dekadave. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb rast, popullsia bot\u00ebrore, e cila aktualisht tejkalon 8 miliard\u00eb, mund t\u00eb bjer\u00eb n\u00eb nivele midis 2 dhe 4 miliard\u00eb deri n\u00eb vitin 2064.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vet\u00eb shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt theksojn\u00eb se modeli nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb parashikim i sakt\u00eb, por nj\u00eb mjet teorik p\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar ndjeshm\u00ebrin\u00eb e sistemit global. Si\u00e7 v\u00ebrejn\u00eb ata, ndryshimet e vogla n\u00eb parametrat kritik\u00eb mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb ndikime disproporcionalisht t\u00eb m\u00ebdha n\u00eb evolucionin demografik t\u00eb njer\u00ebzimit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nj\u00eb fizikant italian dhe nj\u00eb ekip nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebsh paraqesin nj\u00eb model q\u00eb tregon nj\u00eb reduktim drastik t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore deri n\u00eb vitin 2064, n\u00eb skenar\u00eb ekstrem\u00eb t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs klimatike. Nj\u00eb model i ri teorik i zhvilluar nga shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb nga Evropa po ngre p\u00ebrs\u00ebri n\u00eb plan t\u00eb par\u00eb shqet\u00ebsimet n\u00eb lidhje me evolucionin afatgjat\u00eb t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":37327,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37326","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37326"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37326\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37328,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37326\/revisions\/37328"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/37327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kohanews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}